In the aftermath of one of the largest video game launches of the year, if not of history, Microsoft and Sony are trying to use the retail numbers to jockey for position in their hardware war. Currently, Microsoft is bragging that the 360 edition of Grand Theft Auto IV is outselling to the PS3 version by a ration of 2:1. Sony disputes this assertion, but some notable analysts have already claimed that such sales data actually translate into a win for Sony.
The word from Microsoft is particularly bullish:
“What we’ve heard anecdotally from our retail partners is that the Xbox 360 version of the game is outselling the PS3 version by a margin of two-to-one,” said Aaron Greenberg, director of product management for Xbox 360 and Xbox Live during an interview Thursday.
“That mirrors what we saw with pre-orders, but it continues to hold true at retail, at least for the first couple of days. It’s a great sign.”
Of course, Sony has a different perspective on the matter, and a rep suggests that the Redmond giant might be overstating the retail advantage:
But a SCEA rep questioned Microsoft’s findings, saying that Microsoft’s two-to-one ratio “doesn’t line up” with what Sony has been hearing from its retailers. The rep declined to say exactly what Sony has been hearing from its retail partners until more concrete data can be compiled.
Sony remains optimistic and believes that brand loyalty will bring former GTA players on the PS2 over to the waiting arms of the PS3. Greenberg has other ideas:
But Greenberg suggested that many gamers are ignoring PlayStation brand loyalty in the case of GTA IV because of the exclusive downloadable content that will be available for the Xbox 360 this fall.
“That’s making a big difference in peoples’ console purchase decisions. … GTA fans are switching over to Xbox 360 just like Guitar Hero fans and Madden fans did. …The same thing is happening with Grand Theft Auto IV.”
For all the bluff and bluster of Microsoft, the real number that matters will be the number of consoles moved as a result of GTA. If Sony can make inroads into Microsoft’s domination of the “hardcore” market, this release will certainly be a victory.
Industry analysts tend to agree with the Sony perspective, and more “anecdotal” evidence seems to support Sony’s claims. The ever voluble Michael Pachter is a firm believer in the PS3 this year:
“I think PS3 ‘wins’ this battle,” Pachter told Reuters. He said that if sales of Take-Two’s GTA IV come in at the high end of the 9-12.5 million unit estimates during 2008, the game will directly drive sales of two million additional PS3s this year, compared to one million Xbox 360s.
While the Xbox 360 standalone version of GTA IV will doubtless sell more units than the PS3 version due to the higher installed base the 360 commands, BMO Capital Markets analyst Edward Williams says some consumers may have been waiting for marquee titles like GTA IV before hopping on the PS3 bandwagon.
And Jesse Divnich at Gamasutra supplements the argument that PS3 “wins” the GTA war by pointing out that the PS3 will enjoy sales to a greater percentage of its install base:
For reference, The simExchange is expecting a 1.65 to 1 Xbox 360 to PS3 sales ratio for Grand Theft Auto IV, which, if true, would indicate a PS3 ‘victory’, at least in terms of percentage of total installed base purchasing the game.
Until we hear the real numbers from NPD, a lot of this arguing is a moot. May is really the month to pay attention to. We at GameCyte will be waiting with bated breath.
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