On a positive economic note, Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets is predicting that software sales in the games industry experienced year-over-year growth in March. Such predictions have become common place among analysts who are increasingly bullish about the recession-proof potential of the video game industry.
In the face of an increasingly negative economic outlook of the country with even Bernanke conceding that recession is possible, the video game industry appears to be going strong. Stronger than before, in fact. Where the year-over-year growth from March ‘06-’07 was 15%, the growth of sales in the month of March between ‘07 and ‘08 will supposedly be up to 35%.
Sebastian cites three strong debuts as potential reasons for the surge:
Sebastian believes new releases such as Nintendo’s Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Ubisoft’s Rainbow Six Vegas 2, and EA’s Army of Two all made strong debuts. Nintendo and Ubisoft have confirmed as much with their own internal numbers, with Brawl’s sales pegged at 1.4 million units in its opening week and Vegas 2 hitting the 2 million milestone two weeks after its launch.
Furthermore, Sebastian believes that the high profile releases in the coming summer months will only mean further growth:
Sebastian also said that March’s strong performance will be a trend repeated throughout the summer months, thanks to an unusual number of high-profile mid-year releases. “We expect ongoing positive growth trends into the summer months with visibility from a solid release lineup on all three console platforms, including GTAIV, Mario Kart & Wii Fit, GT 5: Prologue, Metal Gear Solid 4, and Spore,” he said. “While more modest growth rates are likely in [the second half of 2008], we expect healthy sales trends to continue over the balance of the year.”
Although growth rates may be more modest, it seems that analysts are becoming more and more confident that the game industry will fare well in the event of a recession. That is a good sign for gamers because as the financial sector becomes more bullish about video games, the games industry will see an influx of capital to produce more games. We can only hope that such a windfall leads to more innovative titles and not just a flood of sequels.
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