In January, the PlayStation 3 outsold the Xbox 360 by 17%, for the first time beating out their main competition for the hardcore demographic. Now, the Sony executives are getting chirpy about the rise of the PS3 and the fall of the Xbox 360. Are signs of optimism for Sony simply fata morgana, or will it continue to gain market share at the expense of the Xbox 360 during this hardware cycle?
The quote highlighted at Kotaku from the original Next-Gen interview with VP of Product Marketing Scott Steinberg is illuminating:
[Microsoft] had a great crescendo moment with Halo and it helped catapult them into a pretty strong position towards the back end of last year, but they were still within a stone’s throw of where they were with the original Xbox.
To me that speaks of a failure to broaden their reach beyond the core first person shooter player who was in their back pocket for Xbox. The question for us is ‘are they really going after the PS2 demographic? Are they stealing share from us?’ And the answer is no.
Aside from Steinberg’s insistence on using the word “crescendo” as a synonym for “apex” rather than using correctly it to mean “a gradual increase, especially in the volume or intensity of sound in a passage” (American Heritage), I think he makes an excellent point.
The Xbox continues to perform well within a select demographic, and that’s not the same broad acceptance that the PlayStation 2 eventually acquired. Some of the credit for the (continued) sales of the PS2 goes to its aggressive, sub-$100 price point, but the spectrum of games released on the platform was exceptionally wide. Many of the titles may have been shovelware, but shovelware sells well to casual gamers, and casual gamers like inexpensive systems and inexpensive games.
The exclusive titles, at least the most prominant exclusives, are focused on that hardcore demographic. Halo 3 boosted sales of the 360 over the Wii for a month, and BioShock enjoyed great critical acclaim, but each game is, at its heart, focused on a very limited segment of the gaming population. The only family exclusive Microsoft has is Viva Pinata, and they’ve been milking that one for all it’s worth. In short, the exclusives for 360 aren’t going to expand its reach.
Contrast that with the PS3’s upcoming exclusive LittleBigPlanet. It’s not hard to imagine people of all ages creating levels and sharing their puzzles across a free online service. Looking toward the other side of the ocean, the other exclusive that really dominates the Japanese market will be Final Fantasy XIII, and Microsoft has been able to make any significant headway in that market even with games like Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey as exclusives.
The overwhelming reason to be optimistic about the PS3, though, is Blu-Ray. If you haven’t heard, it won. Microsoft is basically giving away HD-DVD bundles for the 360, and to compete with the PS3 as a media player, the company will be forced to develop a new product. In contrast, the PS3 is already one of the best values for a Blu-Ray player, particularly given that it will be immediately updated with new Firmware as it comes out.
I don’t know if any of my friends bought a single DVD before they owned PS2s. DVD players were a luxury that we didn’t have the money to indulge in, but as soon as a game system was out that we could play movies on, well, yeah, of course we bought PS2s.
I’m not sure that the PS3 will score a knock out blow in 2008, but I think it will begin to wear away at the Xbox 360’s lead, especially if Sony is aggressive with price cuts.
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